Rex Column 10 August 2015
Stark contrasts getting starker
by Cees Bruggemans words 1140
SA continues to offer stark contrasts. Only wishing to see one side of the coin risks not seeing the other side, or to appreciate the ‘why’.
Rex Column 3 August 2015
Entering & Exiting Instability
by Cees Bruggemans words 1270
Finance Minister Nene last week sketched a bleak picture at a government lekgotla (cosy get-together), warning that SA is stuck in a low growth trap.
Rex Column 27 July 2015
Supercycle keeps biting
Weaker demand, oversupply, and perceptions of these conditions still worsening for many commodities has caused another across-the-board downward shift in global commodity prices in recent weeks. The price adjustment looks like having further to run.
Rex Column 20 July 2015
by Cees Bruggemans words 1500
South African prospects are driven by external & domestic dynamics, both having positive & negative features shaping the outlook.
Rex Column 13 July 2015
Moments of Truth
Multiple crises are being faced across the world at present and a hat-trick of positive outcomes may well be being achieved, ever so unexpectedly in some of these instances.
Rex Column 6 July 2015
More nails in SA coffin
A recession is a shock reaction to some event, inviting a violent defensiveness on the part of enough producers & consumers to cause output to temporarily crimp. The idea of “sleepwalking” into negative GDP growth just seems preposterous, there usually being enough natural growth momentum to prevent stall speed.
Until getting to 2015 and not liking what we see.
Rex Column 29 June 2015
Absence of Crisis Mode
It is strange. Globally, there is much unease about many things, but no crisis mode (yet). Locally, there is a sense of resignation rather than crisis mode where the latter might be more appropriate than the former, unless comfortably off with outlets elsewhere.
Like the frog having a nice swim in comfortably heated water?
And so an absence of crisis mode globally or locally, where in times past similar conditions could easily have fed the kind of anxiety spiraling out of control.
A fools paradise, or a greater structure more robust than imagined?
Rex Column 22 June 2015
The Wolf Pack Attack
by Cees Bruggemans words 750
The economy is being assaulted, from many angles simultaneously.
This is not a reference to the infamous supply side ambushes, as in going without electricity (load shedding), going without labour (crippling union strikes), or going without title (permits).
This assault is strictly demand based, and it is coming simultaneously from many different angles, at least two purely domestic, another two mostly from outside.
Rex Column 15 June 2015
Our macro policymakers have of a late become a little too willing to dish out discipline to the rest of us. They should desist?
Rex Column 8 June 2015
There was more than just a whiff of panic observable in markets when the Great Bund Tantrum began around 16-17 April. It isn't nice to be caught on the wrong side of history. The same was again seen the past two weeks with Bund yields rerating yet higher, pulling the world with them.