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Rex Column

Rex Column                                                                                 19 October 2015

The data perhaps don't lie?    

by Cees Bruggemans          words 880

We tend to discredit data, especially data that doesn't make sense. But then sometimes one needs to go wider to get confirmation. Perhaps the data doesn't mislead as much as sometimes suspected?

Rex Column                                                                                 12 October 2015

SARB rate hikes & consumers     

by Cees Bruggemans          words 1150

It is a serious question: how badly does a SARB interest rate hike hit our SA households? Impacting disposable income. Shifting buying power away from consumer businesses towards bank depositors (favoured by higher interest income)?

Rex Column                                                                                   5 October 2015

That sinking feeling: 3Q15    

by Cees Bruggemans          words 850

July offered a good start to 3Q15, with mining, manufacturing & retail output up on monthly averages for 2Q15, suggesting a promising beginning to the quarter. But it didn't last, thereafter an avalanche of many negatives giving that sinking feeling, giving 3Q15 a challenging aura. 

Rex Column                                                                           28 September 2015

SA Tales of the Unexpected    

by Cees Bruggemans          words 800

There are a couple of things we need to focus upon more closely. Things that don't come to us naturally. Good news understatement we tend to brush away.

Rex Column                                                                         21 September 2015

The Mystery of China    

by Cees Bruggemans                 words 800

We continue to be flummoxed by the great mystery of China’s growth condition. In recent dealings with clients, the usual unease was expressed about China (growth implosion or steady structural transition?).

Herewith some speculation.

Rex Column                                                                           14 September 2015

An Inconvenient Truth    

by Cees Bruggemans          words 1150

Up till four months ago, the world had been solely in thrall of the upcoming Fed liftoff, the dread moment already somewhat delayed but not indefinitely. The 2H15 would most likely see liftoff & the world needed to absorb that.

And then out of left field came China, showing up economic weakness & financial fragility at a most inconvenient time, muddying the global waters so to speak, heavily impacting on many dependent economies & markets around the world, and greatly complicating the imminent Fed launch.

Rex Column                                                                              7 September 2015

Another straining quarter    

by Cees Bruggemans          words 850

A light point in an otherwise deplorable condition.

Rex Column                                                                                31 August 2015

Warm Fuzzy Consumer Logic    31/8

by Cees Bruggemans          words 760

Even as the economy struggles to get by, with agriculture & manufacturing (15% of GDP) in recession (reporting serial quarterly output declines) and electricity, mining & the trades (retail, wholesale, motor & tourism), together 25% of GDP, were also flirting with recession (so far one quarter in decline), there remained a very warm fuzzy corner to the whole show.

Consumers.

Rex Column                                                                                24 August 2015

China & SA Exposure   

by Cees Bruggemans          words 970

It is ironic. For the worry beads, China has been an accident waiting to happen for a decade. Yet for long nothing.

And then just when in the run-up to a Fed liftoff of historic proportions, with global anxiety in a state of heightened expectation, China decides to blow a tyre (or two).

Rex Column                                                                                17 August 2015

Fainting spells & quick salt    

by Cees Bruggemans          words 900

You needed to be quick-witted last week, for events played out in quick succession, with the plot changing nearly daily.

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